Post-surgery survival and associated factors for cardiac patients in Ethiopia: applications of machine learning, semi-parametric and parametric modelling.

INTRODUCTION: Living in poverty, especially in low-income countries, are more affected by cardiovascular disease. Unlike the developed countries, it remains a significant cause of preventable heart disease in the Sub-Saharan region, including Ethiopia. According to the Ethiopian Ministry of Health statement, around 40,000 cardiac patients have been waiting for surgery in Ethiopia since September 2020. There is insufficient information about long-term cardiac patients' post-survival after cardiac surgery in Ethiopia. Therefore, the main objective of the current study was to determine the long-term post-cardiac surgery patients' survival status in Ethiopia. METHODS: All patients attended from 2012 to 2023 throughout the country were included in the current study. The total number of participants was 1520 heart disease patients. The data collection procedure was conducted from February 2022- January 2023. Machine learning algorithms were applied. Gompertz regression was used also for the multivariable analysis report. RESULTS: From possible machine learning models, random survival forest were preferred. It emphasizes, the most important variable for clinical prediction was SPO2, Age, time to surgery waiting time, and creatinine value and it accounts, 42.55%, 25.17%,11.82%, and 12.19% respectively. From the Gompertz regression, lower saturated oxygen, higher age, lower ejection fraction, short period of cardiac center stays after surgery, prolonged waiting time to surgery, and creating value were statistically significant predictors of death outcome for post-cardiac surgery patients' survival in Ethiopia. CONCLUSION: Some of the risk factors for the death of post-cardiac surgery patients are identified in the current investigation. Particular attention should be given to patients with prolonged waiting times and aged patients. Since there were only two fully active cardiac centers in Ethiopia it is far from an adequate number of centers for more than 120 million population, therefore, the study highly recommended to increase the number of cardiac centers that serve as cardiac surgery in Ethiopia.

Predictors for CD4 cell count and hemoglobin level with survival time to default for HIV positive adults under ART treatment at University of Gondar Comprehensive and Specialized Hospital, Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: HIV/AIDS is the most known powerful risk factor for morbidity and mortality in the world. The greatest biological markers in HIV patients are CD4 cell count and hemoglobin level, as they are independent predictors of survival of HIV patients. The objective of this study was to investigate the common socio-demographic, clinical, and behavioral Predictor's affecting the CD4 cell count, and hemoglobin level with survival time to default from ART treatment among HIV positive adults under ART treatment at university of Gondar comprehensive and specialized hospital, North-west Ethiopia. METHOD: This study was conducted at University of Gondar comprehensive specialized hospital by using a retrospective cohort follow up study design. The source of data in this study was secondary data obtained from patients chart. Bayesian joint models were employed to get wide-ranging information about HIV/AIDS progression. RESULT: From a total of 403 HIV positive adults, about 44.2% were defaulted from therapy and the rest were actively followed ART treatment. The estimate of the association parameter for the current true value of CD4 cell count ([Formula: see text]), and hemoglobin level ([Formula: see text]), trend of CD4 cell count ([Formula: see text]) and hemoglobin level ([Formula: see text]) is positive. Positive values indicating that the higher CD4 cell count and hemoglobin level is related with the higher time of defaulting from ART. Predictor's hematocrit, weight, platelet cell count, lymphocyte count, sex, adherence, and WHO clinical stage were joint determinate risk factors affecting CD4 cell count, hemoglobin level and time to default at 5% level of significance. CONCLUSION: Current study results revealed that hematocrit, weight, BMI, platelet cell count, lymphocyte count, sex (female), and good treatment adherence were significantly associated with higher CD4 cell count, hemoglobin level and time to default while having advanced WHO clinical stage-IV had significantly decreased CD4 cell, hemoglobin level, and time to default from treatment. Patients with HIV should be given special attention based on these important factors to improve their health and prolong their lives.

Time to recovery and its determinant factors among patients with COVID-19 in Assosa COVID-19 treatment center, Western Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: The Novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has become a global threat. Determining the time to recovery from COVID-19 is intended to assist healthcare professionals in providing better care, and planning logistics. So, the study aimed to identify the factors that affect the time to recovery from COVID-19 for patients treated at Assosa COVID-19 treatment center, Benishangul Gumuz Regional State, Western Ethiopia. METHODS: A retrospective study design was conducted on 334 randomly selected COVID-19 patients at Assosa COVID-19 treatment center from February 2021 to July 2021. The median survival time, Kaplan-Meier survival estimate, and Log-Rank test were used to describe the data and compare the survival time between groups. The study used the Cox PH model to analyze the time to the first recovery of COVID-19 patients, where hazard ratio, p-value, and 95% CI for hazard ratio were used for testing significance. Schoenfeld and Cox-Snell residuals were used for checking the model assumption. RESULTS: The overall incidence rate was 13.79 per 100 (95% CI: 10.04, 18.95) person-days observations. The median time to recovery was 16 days. At the end of the follow-up, 77.2% of the patients had developed an event of recovery, and the rest 22.8% were censored. The mean age of patients was 45.22 years. Severe COVID-19 patients (AHR = 0.7876, 95% CI: 0.7090, 0.8748), presence of symptoms (AHR = 0.2814, 95% CI: 0.1340, 0.5914), comorbidity (AHR = 0.1627, 95% CI: 0.1396, 0.1897), ≥ 90 oxygen saturation (AHR = 3.2370, 95% CI: 2.161, 4.848), and being older age (AHR = 0.9840, 95% CI: 0.971, 0.9973) were found to have statistically significant association with the time to recovery from COVID-19. CONCLUSION: The study concludes that severe COVID-19 patients, male patients, patients having comorbidity, older age, and patients having symptoms as poor prognostic factors of COVID-19 disease and also prolonged recovery time. Therefore, health providers in treatment centers should give strict follow-up and priority to older patients, severe COVID-19 patients, and patients having another co-morbid illness by focusing on respiratory difficulties and underlying pre-existing medical conditions to manage the disease severity and recover quickly.

Predictors of Viral Load and Medication Adherence Among HIV-Positive Adults Under Treatment at Felege-Hiwot Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, North-West, Ethiopia.

Background: Maintaining good medication adherence and decreasing viral load in patients living with HIV/AIDS are critical to ensuring antiretroviral therapy's preventive and therapeutic benefits. The main objective of this study was to assess the predictors of viral load and medication adherence among HIV-positive adults under treatment at Felege Hiwot Comprehensive Specialized Hospital (FHCSH). Methods: A retrospective cohort study design was conducted from a random sample of 281 adult HIV-infected patients under treatment at FHCSH in northwest Ethiopia from June 2017 to June 2021. Separate GLMM was used in analysis of viral load and medication adherence, and joint mode was applied to fit those two outcomes jointly. The potential correlation of those two outcomes was linked by random intercepts. Information criteria (AIC and BIC) were used for model comparison and covariance structure selection. Results: The small standard error of significant predictors and significant correlation between viral load and medication adherence over time provide evidence for joint model selection. The correlation between viral load and medication adherence was -0.7688 (P-value=< 0.05), which indicates that the decrement of viral load tends to increase good medication adherence. Patient substance use, visit time, baseline CD4 cell, baseline hemoglobin, and the interaction of visit time by substance use were significantly associated with viral load and medication adherence jointly. Conclusion: The study revealed that substance user adult patients, patients with low baseline CD4 cells, and patients with low baseline hemoglobin were with high viral loads and poor medication adherence. Therefore, health officials and other concerned bodies should give special attention and high intervention to patients with low baseline hemoglobin; poor adherence and low baseline CD4 cell count.

Determinants of Time-to-Death of Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia Patients at Felege Hiwot Referral Hospital, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia.

Background: Leukemia is a group of cancers that usually begin in the bone marrow and results in a large number of abnormal white blood cells. Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia is the most prevalent leukemia in Western countries, with an estimated incidence rate of less than 1 to 5.5 per 100 000 people, and average age at diagnosis of 64 to 72 years. It is more common in men among Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia patients in Ethiopia's hospitals at Felege Hiwot Referal Hospital. Methods: A retrospective cohort research design was employed to acquire critical information from patients' medical records in order to achieve the study's purpose. The study comprised the medical records of 312 Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia who were followed from January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2020. A Cox proportional hazard model was used to determine the risk factors for time to death in Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia patients. Results: Accordingly the Cox proportional hazard model, age (Hazard Ratio = 11.36; P < .001), sex of male (Hazard Ratio = 1.04; P = .004), married status (Hazard Ratio = 0.03; P = .003), medium stages of Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (Hazard Ratio = 1.29; P = .024), high stages of Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (Hazard Ratio = 1.99; P < .001), presence of anemia (Hazard Ratio =0.09; P = .005), platelets (Hazard Ratio = 2.11; P = .007), hemoglobin (Hazard Ratio = 0.02; P < .001), lymphocytes (Hazard Ratio = 0.29; P = .006), red blood cell (Hazard Ratio = 0.02; P < .001), which patients with Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia had a significant relationship with time to death. Conclusions: Age, sex, Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia stage, anemia, platelets, hemoglobin, lymphocytes, and red blood cells were all statistically significant determinants in the time to death of Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia patients, according to the data. As a result, healthcare providers should pay particular attention to and emphasize the identified characteristics, as well as provide frequent counseling on how to enhance the health of Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia patients.

Quality of Life and Associated Factors of HIV Patients Under Treatment with First Line Regimens in Public Hospitals in Amhara Region, North-West Ethiopia.

Background: The availability of medication related to HIV treatment in the world is one of the substantial improvements for reaching USAID's 90-90 targets. Among the 90% of patients who have awareness about their disease, 90% are accessing their treatment and patients who received appropriate treatment have a suppressed viral load and improved CD4 cell count. Therefore, the main objective of the current study was to investigate the quality of life and associated factors of people living with HIV receiving first-line regimens at public hospitals in the Amhara region, Ethiopia. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 700 adult HIV-infected patients under treatment with first-line regimens, who were followed-up in 17 public hospitals in the Amhara region. A multivariate linear regression analysis was used for the current study. Results: Of the 700 patients included in the current analyses, 59.5% (n=358) reported no impairment in self-care, while 63.1% (n=380) were extremely anxious/depressed. The overall expected EQ-5D utility score and visual analog scale (EQ-VAS) scores were 0.388 0.41 and 66.20 17.22 respectively. The current study indicated that the covariates sex, age of patient, level of education, appointment frequency, disclosure status of the disease, and substance use significantly affected the quality of life of people living with HIV and under treatment with first-line regimens. Hence, higher CD4 cell count and less detectable viral load lead to good quality of life of people living with HIV. Conclusion: This study indicates that certain covariates have been identified as statistically significant predictors of the study variable "quality of life" of HIV-positive people. The findings obtained in the current investigation can help policy-makers to revise the current directives. The result obtained in this study can also help health staff to conduct health-related education during the treatment of HIV patients.

Predictors for the Longevity of People with Diabetes in Buno Bedele and Illubabor Zones, South-west Ethiopia.

Introduction: Currently, diabetes is a global health problem and it affects many people, especially in the developing continents. As patients' living conditions improve and the science of medicine advances, the longevity of such patients has increased greatly. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to identify predictors for the association of the longevity of people with diabetes in Buno Bedele and Illubabor Zones, South-west Ethiopia. Methods: The study applied a retrospective cohort study design approach. In particular, long rank tests for longevity experience and Cox semi-parametric regression were implemented to compare and investigate the predictors associated with the longevity of patients with diabetes. Results: Among all the patients who participated in this study, 56.9% were females and the rest were males. From the Cox regression result, age (AHR = 1.0550, 95% CI: (1.0250, 1.0860), p-value = 0.001), female patients (AHR = 0.2200, 95% CI: (0.0390, 0.5290)), rural patients (AHR = 0.2200, 95% CI: (0.1000, 0.4890), p-value = 0.001), the existence of fasting blood glucose complication (AHR = 1.2040, 95% CI: (1.0930, 1.4460), p-value = 0.001), the existence of blood pressure (AHR = 1.2480, 95% CI: (1.1390, 1.5999), p-value = 0.0180), treatment type, Sulfonylureas (AHR = 4.9970, 95% CI: (1.4140, 17.6550), p-value = 0.0120), treatment type, Sulfonylurea and Metformin (AHR = 5.7200, 95% CI: (1.7780, 18.3990), p-value = 0.0030) were significantly affected the longevity of people with diabetes. Conclusion: The findings of the current study showed that the patient's age, sex of patients, residence area, the existence of complications, existence of pressure, and treatment type were major risk factors related to the longevity of people with diabetes. Hence, health-related education should be given to patients who come to take treatment to have better longevity for people with diabetes. More attention should be given to aged patients, male and urban patients, patients under complication treatment, and patients under treatment with single-treatment medication.

Classification of imbalanced data using machine learning algorithms to predict the risk of renal graft failures in Ethiopia.

INTRODUCTION: The prevalence of end-stage renal disease has raised the need for renal replacement therapy over recent decades. Even though a kidney transplant offers an improved quality of life and lower cost of care than dialysis, graft failure is possible after transplantation. Hence, this study aimed to predict the risk of graft failure among post-transplant recipients in Ethiopia using the selected machine learning prediction models. METHODOLOGY: The data was extracted from the retrospective cohort of kidney transplant recipients at the Ethiopian National Kidney Transplantation Center from September 2015 to February 2022. In response to the imbalanced nature of the data, we performed hyperparameter tuning, probability threshold moving, tree-based ensemble learning, stacking ensemble learning, and probability calibrations to improve the prediction results. Merit-based selected probabilistic (logistic regression, naive Bayes, and artificial neural network) and tree-based ensemble (random forest, bagged tree, and stochastic gradient boosting) models were applied. Model comparison was performed in terms of discrimination and calibration performance. The best-performing model was then used to predict the risk of graft failure. RESULTS: A total of 278 completed cases were analyzed, with 21 graft failures and 3 events per predictor. Of these, 74.8% are male, and 25.2% are female, with a median age of 37. From the comparison of models at the individual level, the bagged tree and random forest have top and equal discrimination performance (AUC-ROC = 0.84). In contrast, the random forest has the best calibration performance (brier score = 0.045). Under testing the individual model as a meta-learner for stacking ensemble learning, the result of stochastic gradient boosting as a meta-learner has the top discrimination (AUC-ROC = 0.88) and calibration (brier score = 0.048) performance. Regarding feature importance, chronic rejection, blood urea nitrogen, number of post-transplant admissions, phosphorus level, acute rejection, and urological complications are the top predictors of graft failure. CONCLUSIONS: Bagging, boosting, and stacking, with probability calibration, are good choices for clinical risk predictions working on imbalanced data. The data-driven probability threshold is more beneficial than the natural threshold of 0.5 to improve the prediction result from imbalanced data. Integrating various techniques in a systematic framework is a smart strategy to improve prediction results from imbalanced data. It is recommended for clinical experts in kidney transplantation to use the final calibrated model as a decision support system to predict the risk of graft failure for individual patients.

Predictors of Viral Load Status Over Time Among HIV Infected Adults Under HAART in Zewditu Memorial Hospital, Ethiopia: A Retrospective Study.

Background: HIV attacks the CD4 cells which are responsible for the body's immune response to infectious agents. The main objective of this study was to identify predictors of viral load status over time among HIV patients under HAART in Zewditu Memorial Hospital. Methods: A retrospective institutional-based cohort study design was conducted on 161 HIV-infected adults under HAART whose follow-ups were from January 2014 up to December 2017. A generalized linear mixed-effects model was conducted to infer predictors of the status of viral load at 95% of CI). Results: The descriptive statistics revealed that about 55.9% of the adults under treatment had a detected viral load status. Among the potential predictors, visiting time of patients (AOR = 0.731, 95%: (0.634,0.842) and p-value <0.01), age of patients (AOR = 1.0666, 95% CI: (1.0527,1.0917) and p-value <0.01), weight (AOR=. 0.904, 95% CI: (0.862, 0.946) and p-value <0.01), baseline CD4 cell count (AOR = 0.996, 95% CI: (0.994, 0.998) and P-value <0.01), educated patients (AOR = 0.030, 95% CI: (0.002, 0.385) and p-value=0.0053), rural patients (AOR = 6.30,95% CL: (1.78, 2.25) and p-value=0.0043), working status patients (AOR = 0.5905, 95% CI: (0.547,0.638), p-value <0.01), poor adherent patients (AOR = 1.120, 95% CI; (1.035,1.391) and p-value = 0.016) and patients disclosed the disease status (AOR = 0.195, 95% CI: (0.023, 0.818) and p-value=0.0134) significantly affected the detection status of viral loads, keeping all other covariates constant. Conclusion: The predictor variables; visiting times, the weight of patients, residence area, age of patients, educational level, clinical stages, functional status, baseline CD4 cell count, adherence status, and disclosure status of the disease statistically and significantly affected the status of viral load. Hence, health-related education should be given for patients to disclose their disease status, to be good adherents based on the prescription given to the health staff. Due attentions should be given for rural and uneducated patients. Attention should be forwarded to for non-adherent patients to follow the instruction given by the health staff.

Predictors for the duration of breastfeeding among ethiopia women of childbearing age with babies; application of accelerate failure time and parametric shared frailty models.

INTRODUCTION: Duration of breastfeeding is the length of the time that infants who were initially breastfed continue to receive breast milk until weaning. The duration of breastfeeding is important for a child's health, growth, and development. However, the duration of breastfeeding decreases from time to time and further leads children to be exposed to malnutrition (stunting, wasting, and weight loss). Children who did not get enough breastfeeding are also exposed to different diseases. Previous studies used a simple survival model and didn't see the shared frailty model on the variable of interest. Therefore, the current study aimed to investigate the factors affecting the duration of breastfeeding among Ethiopian women of reproductive age with babies. METHODS: A cross-sectional study design was conducted on 15,400 women of childbearing age with babies in nine regional states and two city administrations. The data source for the analysis was the 2016 EDHS data. The Cox-proportional hazard model, AFT, and parametric shared frailty models were conducted for the current investigation. Weibull-gamma shared frailty model was in favor of others for current data analysis. RESULTS: Among the covariates, women living in urban area (Φ = 0.96; 95% CI; (0.94,0.97); p-value = 0.001), non-educated women(Φ = 1.03; 95% CI; (1.00,1.06); p-value = 0.039), primary educated women (Φ = 1.13; 95% CI; (1.11,1.15); p-value < 0.001), age of a child (Φ = 0.99; 95% CI; (0.76.0.99); p-value < 0.001) and non-smoker mothers (Φ = 1.60; 95% CI; (1.57, 1.63); p-value < 0.001),birth interval between 2-3 years(Φ = 1.02; 95% CI;(1.09, 1.25, p-value = 0.027), birth interval, > 3 years(Φ = 1.28; 95% CI; (1.06, 1.43); p-value < 0.01 significantly affected the duration of breastfeeding. The median survival time of breastfeeding of women of reproductive age with babies considered under study was 23.4 months. Clustering had a significant effect on the variable of interest. CONCLUSION: Residence area, level of education, age of the child, smoking status of women, and birth interval of successive birth significantly affected the duration of breastfeeding in the current investigation. Hence, the health staff should conduct health-related education for young women, educated women, urban women, smoker women, and women with a shorter interval of birth to increase the women's attitude and awareness towards the use of long-duration of breastfeeding.

Evaluation of the interventions on HIV case management and its association with cART adherence and disclosure of the disease status among HIV-positive adults under treatment.

The rate of prevalence of HIV among adults has been increasing in sub-Saharan African countries over the last decade. The objective of this study was to evaluate the interventions on HIV case management based on cART adherence and disclosure of HIV disease status among HIV-positive adults under treatment. A retrospective cohort longitudinal data was conducted on 792 randomly selected patients in the study area. Engagement of HIV-positive persons into care and achieving treatment outcomes such as the disclosure of HIV status and cART adherence were fundamental for HIV prevention strategy. The two response variables under the current investigation were evaluation of intervention on HIV case management interims cART adherence and disclosure of HIV status. Binary logistic regression was conducted for separate models. Among the predictors, age of patients (AOR = 1.020, 95% CI (1.016, 1.191); p value = 0.005), the number of follow-up (AOR = 1.014, 95% CI (1.023, 1.030); p value < 0.0001). CD4 cell count (AOR = 0.981; 95% CI (0.765, 0.971), p value < 0.01), Marital status (AOR = 1.013; 95% CI (1.002, 1.015), p value = 0.006), female patients (AOR = 1.014; 95% CI (1.001, 1.121), p value < 0.007), rural (AOR = 0.982; 95% CI (0.665, 0.998), p value = 0.004), non-educated adult patients (AOR = 0.950, 95% CI (0.92. 0.98). p value = 0.003), Non-existence of social violence (AOR = 1.012, 95% CI (1.008, 1.234), p value < 0.01), adult with non-opportunistic diseases (AOR = 1.021, 95% CI (1.002. 1.042). p value = 0.001) significantly affected the two response variables jointly. Interventions on HIV case management lead to an efficient continuum of successful treatment outcomes like disclosure of HIV status and cART adherence. Hence, HIV case management intervention and the two results had a positive association. HIV case management intervention should be given to younger patients, rural residents, and non-educated patients to disclose the disease status and to have a long life with the virus. Health-related education should be conducted for the community in general and for patients in particular on how HIV is transferred from an infected person to an uninfected one. This helps to reduce the stigma of patients and to deliver social support to patients.

Predictors of non-adherence to medication and time to default from treatment on HIV infected patients under HAART: a comparison of joint and separate models.

Background: Ethiopia is one of the Sub-Saharan Africa with the highest number of people living with HIV. Amhara region is one of the regions in the country in which many people are under medication. The main objective of this research was to identify significant predictors of non-adherence to medication and time to default from treatment for HIV infected patients under HAART. Methods: A retrospective secondary data were obtained from a random sample of 220 HIV patients under HAART. Separate and joint modeling approaches were conducted in data analysis. Joint modeling was conducted for analysis of non-adherence to medication and the time to default from treatment. In the joint model, a GLMM and Cox PH sub-models were fit together for non-adherence to medication and time to default from treatment. Results: The significant predictors for the variables of interests in current investigation were length of visiting time(AOR of 95% CI=0.866 (0.752, 0.997), female patients(AOR of 95% CI= 0.219 (0.067, 0.717)), patients disclosed the disease(AOR of 95% CI= 0.353 (0.194,0.641)), patients who got social support(AOR of 95% CI= 0.252 (0.194,0.631)), patients living with parter(AOR of 95% CI=0.188 (0.042,0.844)), patients with owner of cell phone(AOR of 95%CI= 0.272 (0.081,0.916)), urban HIV patients(AOR of 94%CI= 0.238 (0.078,0.722)), patients with working functional status(AOR of 95% CI= 0.234 (0.079,0.692)), patients with normal BMI(AOR of 95% CI=0.921 (0.881, 0.963)), patients with high baseline CD4 cell count(AOR of 95% CI=0.873 (0.552, 0.997)). Conclusion: Some groups of HIV patients were non-adherent to medication and defaulted from treatment. Health related education is recommended for non-adherent patients to be adherent for the prescribed medication and live long in the treatment.

Prevalence for the Disclosure of HIV Status to Sexual Partners and Its Determinants among Adults under cART in Amhara Region, Northwest Ethiopia.

Background: Globally, the transmission of HIV from one individual to another causes 1.8 million new infections each year, 36.7 million people living with HIV, and one million people died from HIV-related illnesses. The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of the disclosure of HIV status to sexual partners and its determinants among adults under cART in the Amhara Region, northwest Ethiopia. Methods: A retrospective study design was conducted on 792 randomly selected samples. The study was conducted in the Amhara Region, from 2015 to 2020. A binary logistic regression modeling was used for data analysis. The data were collected using a stratified random sampling technique where the residential areas were considered strata. Data were collected by trained health practitioners in the ART section in Felege Hiwot Teaching and Specialized Hospital. The hospital is a referral in which many patients from different districts and zonal hospitals in the region are referred to this hospital. Results: The rate of disclosure of HIV status to sexual partners in this study was 21%, which is very low compared to the average rate of disclosure in developing countries. Among the predictors, age of patients (AOR = 1.02, 95% CI:(1.001,1.120); p-value = 0.004); number of baseline CD4 cell count (AOR = 0.980; 95% CI: (0.764, 0.991); p-value<0.01); number of hospital visits (AOR = 1.01; 95% CI: (1.001, 1.034); p-value < 0.01); marital status (living with partner) (AOR = 1.01; 95% CI: (1.003, 1.112); p-value = 0.006); female HIV-positive adults (AOR = 1.01; 95% CI: (1.001, 1.021); p-value = 0.007); rural residence (AOR = 0.98; 95% CI: (0.96, 0.99); p-value = 0.004); non-educated adult patients (AOR = 0.950, 95% CI: (0.92. 0.98); p-value = 0.003); cART non-adherent adult patients (AOR = 0.940, 95% CI: (0.61. 0.97); p-value < 0.001); non-opportunistic infectious diseases (AOR = 1.062, 95% CI: (1.049. 1.191); p-value = 0.002); and non-existence of social violence (AOR = 1.012, 95% CI: (1.008, 1.); p-value < 0.01) significantly affected the variable of interest. Of these, the number of CD4 cell count, male HIV-positive adults, rural residence, and existence of social violence negatively affected the variable of interest. Conclusions: Some groups of HIV patients did not disclose their level of HIV status to their sexual partners. Health-related education is recommended for patients who did not disclose their HIV status to sexual partners. This helps to reduce the transmission of HIV from infected individuals to noninfected ones and from mother-to-child HIV transmission.

Predictors for elevation of Intraocular Pressure (IOP) on glaucoma patients; a retrospective cohort study design.

OBJECTIVE: Because of the increase in the number of cases, currently, glaucoma is a significant public health issue that it leads to optic nerve damage and vision loss. High Intraocular Pressure reading indicates that the treatment given to a glaucoma patient is not sufficient/ adequate. Hence, the elevation of intraocular pressure is one of the indicators that, the therapy given to glaucoma patients under treatment is inadequate. Therefore, the main objective of the current study was to investigate predictors for the variation of elevation of IOP readings on glaucoma patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective cohort study design was conducted on 1254 glaucoma patients, whose followed-ups were from September 2015 to August 2016 at Felege Hiwot Teaching and Specialized Hospital, North West Ethiopia. Data analysis was conducted using Statistical Analysis of Systems (SAS) software version 9.2 and AMOS software. The parameter estimation was conducted using the maximum likelihood estimation technique. RESULTS: Main effects like age (ß = 0.01, t-value = 0.15, p-value = 0.018), patients with normal blood pressure (ß = -3.35, t-value = -2.28, p-value = 0.0263), patients without diabetics (ß = -3.79, t-value = -2.47, p-value = 0.014), visiting times (ß = -6.00, t-value = -5.02, p-value = 0.0001), farmer glaucoma patients (ß = -6.04, t-value = 3.87, p-value = 0.0001) had significant and indirect effect for the variation of elevation of IOP on glaucoma patients. Interaction effects like visiting time with existence of diabetes, visiting time with cataract surgery significantly effected on the variable of interest. Hence, both main and interaction effects had significant effects on the variable of interest. This study had identified socio-demographic characteristics, personal/individual behaviors, and clinical factors for the variation of elevation of IOP. The findings, in the current investigation, help health staff to conduct health-related education for awareness creation. Health-related education, about the progression of glaucoma, should be conducted on patients.

Determinants of CD4 count and risk for death of HIV infected children under ART.

The main objective of this study was to identify variables jointly affected for CD4 count and hazard time to death of HIV-infected children under ART at Felege Hiwot Referal and Specialized Hospital. A retrospective cohort study design was conducted on 202 HIV-infected children under ART whose follow-ups were from January 2014 up to December 2018. The descriptive statistics revealed that about 25.2% of HIV-infected children under ART in the study period(Jaunary 2014-December 2018) died and 74.8% were censored. The estimated association parameter in the joint model was - 0.8339 and statistically significant (p value = 0.025). There was a negative relationship between the two response variables namely CD4 count and the risk for death on HIV-positive children under treatment. The level of education of children's parents, level of disclosure of the disease, baseline CD4 count, functional status, and adherence level were statistically and significantly affected for the two response variables, CD4 count and risks for the death of children. Separate and joint models have been compared interims of standard error and the joint model had a small standard error as compared to the separate models. The small standard errors in joint models indicate that the joint model was better in detecting variables that affected the two responses in this regard. Health-related education should be conducted to parents of children for easy recovery of CD4 count and for reducing risks for the death of children.

Risk Factors for the Development of Tuberculosis Among HIV-Positive Adults Under Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy at Government Hospitals in Amhara Region, Ethiopia.

Background: Tuberculosis is one of the leading infectious diseases for people living with HIV. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate factors affecting the development of TB among HIV-positive adults under treatment in government hospitals of Amhara Region, Ethiopia. Methods: A hospital-based retrospective study design was conducted among 700 HIV-positive adults under HAART in 17 government hospitals in the Amhara region, Ethiopia. Results: Age of the patients (AOR = 1.122, 95% CI:1.013, 2.234), baseline CD4 cell count (AOR = 0.888, 95% CI: 0.714, 0.945), patients living without their partner (AOR = 1.212, 95% CI: 1.051, 1.123), females under treatment (AOR = 0.786, 95% CI; 0.564, 0.845), non-opportunistic diseases (AOR = 0.865, 95% CI: 0.731, 0.938), patients not disclosed their HIV status (AOR = 1.241, 95% CI: 1.087, 2.341), rural patients (AOR = 1.135, 95% CI: 1.032, 1.453, patient with no education (AOR = 1.125, 95% CI: 1.056, 1.546), low adherence patients (AOR = 1.225, 95% CI: 1.191, 2.453), bedridden patients (AOR = 1.223, 95% CI: 1.131, 1.521), ambulatory patients (AOR = 1.156, 95% CI:1.091, 1.267), non-smoker patients (AOR = 0.854, 95% CI: 0.686, 0.935) significantly affected on the variable of interest. Similarly, alcohol intake, drug toxicity and baseline clinical WHO stages significantly affected for the development of tuberculosis in HIV-positive patients under treatment. Conclusion: In this study, baseline CD4 cell count, female patients, non-opportunistic diseases, and non-smoking status were negatively associated with the development of TB, whereas age of patients, living without partners, patients with no education, patients with low adherence, bedridden and ambulatory patients were positively associated to the development of TB in HIV patients. The findings obtained in this study are important for both service providers and patients. More attention should be given to those positively associated variables to response variables. The regional health bureau should open TB/HIV co-infection subsections like ART sections in each hospital.

A Comparison of Adherence and CD4 Cell Count with Respect to Virologic Failure Among HIV-Infected Adults Under Combination Antiretroviral Therapy (cART) at Felege Hiwot Teaching and Specialized Hospital, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Medication adherence plays a significant in the success of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). Therefore, the current investigation was conducted with the objective of comparing adherence and CD4 cell count with respect to virologic failure among HIV-infected adults under cART. METHODS: A retrospective study design was conducted on 792 randomly selected HIV-infected adult patients who initiated first-line cART enrolled in the first 10 months of 2012 and followed up to August 2018 by using a simple random sampling technique based on their identification number. RESULTS: The main outcome for the current investigation was the virologic failure which was decreased with successive visits. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for adherence and CD4 cell count change were 0.68 and 0.63 with χ 2 = 21.2; p-value <0.001 for the 12-month assessment. Similarly, these areas for the 36th and 60th month assessments were 0.71 and 0.66, with χ 2 = 23.2; p-value <0.001, and 0.73 and 0.71 with χ 2 = 24.3; p-value <0.001 for adherence and CD4 cell count, respectively. CONCLUSION: Pill count adherence was more accurate compared to CD4 cell count change for assessing virologic responses. Therefore, because of its easy access, simple use, cost-effectiveness, and accuracy, the adherence to cART was in favor of CD4 cell count change for monitoring the healthcare quality of HIV-infected patients.

Risk Factors of White Blood Cell Progression Among Patients With Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia at Felege Hiwot Referral Hospital, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Leukemia is a type of cancers that start in the bone marrow and produce a serious number of abnormal white blood cells. Bleeding and bruising problems, fatigue, fever, and an increased risk of infection are among symptoms of the disease. The main objective of this study is to identify the determinant of the progression rate of white blood cells among patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia at Felege Hiwot Referral Hospital (FHRH), Bahir Dar, Ethiopia. METHODS: A retrospective study design was conducted on 312 patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia at FHRH, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia under treatment from 1 January 2017 to 31 December 2019. A linear mixed-effects model was considered for the progression of the white blood cell data. RESULTS: The estimated coefficient of the fixed effect intercept was 84.68, indicating that the average white blood cell (WBC) count of the patients was 84.68 at baseline time by excluding all covariates in the model (P-value <.001). Male sex (ß = 2.92, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.58, 0.5.25), age (ß = .17, 95% CI 0.08, 0.28), widowed/divorced marital status (ß = 3.30, 95% CI 0.03, 6.57), medium chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) stage (ß = -4.34, 95% CI -6.57, -2.68), high CLL stage (ß = -2.76, 95% CI -4.86, -0.67), hemoglobin (ß = .15, 95% CI 0.07, 0.22), platelet (ß = .09, 95% CI 0.02, 0.17), lymphocytes (ß = .16, 95% CI 0.03, 0.29), red blood cell (RBC) (ß = .17, 95% CI 0.09, 0.25), and follow-up time (ß = .27, 95% CI 0.19, 0.36) were significantly associated with the average WBC count of chronic lymphocytic leukemia patients. CONCLUSIONS: The finding showed that age, sex, lymphocytic, stage of chronic lymphocytic leukemia, marital status, platelet, hemoglobin, RBC, and follow-up time were significantly associated with the average WBC count of chronic lymphocytic leukemia patients. Therefore, health care providers should give due attention and prioritize those identified factors and give frequent counseling about improving the health of chronic lymphocytic leukemia patients.

Predictors for time to recovery from sever acute malnutrition among under-five children admitted to therapeutic feeding unit at Dubti referral hospital, Afar region, Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Currently, about 165 million children are categorized under malnutrition and 51.5 million suffering from acute malnutrition in world wide. Hence, the objective of current study was to assess the recovery time and its predictors of children under five from severe acute malnutrition admitted to Therapeutic Feeding Unit at Dubti Referral Hospital, Afar region, Eastern Ethiopia. METHODS: Institutional based retrospective cohort study was conducted on 650 inpatient children with SAM admitted for therapeutic feeding unit whose treatment was from March to April/2017. RESULTS: The result in current investigation indicates that the average recovery time from SAM was found to be 21 days (95% CI; 21.23-25.77), p-value = 0.035). A Cox proportional hazard regression model revealed that Weight of a child at birth, gestational age of a child, working status of a child at admission birth order of a child, mother's BMI, mother's level of education, mother's stature, mother's occupation, mother's age, mother's marital status, mother's nutritional status, house hold income in ETB, family size in HH, number of under-five children, the type of toilet used in HH, source of improved drinking water, type of cooking fuel, ownership of livestock, age and weight of a child at admission had statistically significant association with the variation of average recovery time of children from SAM. CONCLUSION: Male children under severe acute malnutrition, rural children, children with different additional diseases and children who did not get mothers' breast milk at least in the first six months after birth and children who did not get vaccination are groups at risk and needs intervention and special attention to be recovered with short period of time. Children from low income family, who did not get improved drinking water, without moderate cooking fuel and a child from larger families were groups at risk in recovery time from SAM.

Determinants of Intraocular Pressure and Time to Blindness for Glaucoma Patients at Felege Hiwot Referral Hospital, Bahir Bar, Ethiopia: A Comparison of Separate and Joint Models.

BACKGROUND: Due to the substantial increase in the number of glaucoma cases within the next several decades, glaucoma is a significant public health issue. The main objective of this study was to investigate the determinant factors of intraocular pressure and time to blindness of glaucoma patients under treatment at Felege Hiwot Referral Hospital, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia. METHODS: A retrospective study design was conducted on 328 randomly selected glaucoma patients using simple random sampling based on the identification number of patients in an ophthalmology clinic at the hospital under the follow-up period from January 2014 to December 2018. A linear mixed effects model for intraocular pressure data, a semi-parametric survival model for the time-to-blindness data and joint modeling of the 2 responses were used for data analysis. However, the primary outcome was survival time of glaucoma patients. RESULTS: The comparison of joint and separate models revealed that joint model was more adequate and efficient inferences because of its smaller standard errors in parameter estimations. This was also approved using AIC, BIC, and based on a significant likelihood ratio test as well. The estimated association parameter (α) in the joint model was .0160 and statistically significant (P-value = .0349). This indicated that there was strong evidence for positive association between the effects of intraocular pressure and the risk of blindness. The result indicated that the higher value of intraocular pressure was associated with the higher risk of blindness. Age, hypertension, type of medication, cup-disk ratio significantly affects both average intraocular pressure and survival time of glaucoma patients (P-value < .05). CONCLUSION: The predictors; age, hypertension, type of medication, and cup-disk ratio were significantly associated with the 2 responses of glaucoma patients. Health professionals give more attention to patients who have blood pressure and cup-disk ratio greater than 0.7 during the follow-up time to reduce the risk of blindness of glaucoma patients.